Can you invent another experiment which demonstrates the same point, and get data? (1) Coffee shop. (e.g. (A CASE STUDY OF FEDERAL MEDICAL CENTER OWERRI), A TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF CUSTOMER ATTENDANCE (A CASE STUDY OF SHOPRITE MALLS ENUGU), DESIGN AND ANALYSIS OF EXPERIMENTS ON THE METHODS OF ESTIMATING VARIANCE COMPONENTS, CLUSTER ANALYSIS ON THE EFFECT OF DOLLAR INCREMENT ON THE ECONOMY OF NIGERIA, PHYSIOCHEMICAL AND SENSORY EVALUATION OF COOKIES PRODUCED FROM BLENDS OF MALTED SORGHUM, SPROUTED BLACK BEANS AND COOKED COCOYAM FLOUR, PROXIMATE ANALYSIS, MINERALS, STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT’S EXPENDITURE AND REVENUE (A CASE STUDY OF NATIONAL BUREAU OF STATISTICS, KADUNA STATE) FROM THE 2003 – 2008, A MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS ON THE RESPONSE OF CROPS TO FERTILIZER AND SOIL TYPES. More projects can be found in the 2017 lecture slides. players -- when one person wins, how many others will have lines with 4 out of 5 filled? Note: below not updated since 2014. rather than more professional or commercial ones (which will be more prominent in IARPA ACE page. "ordinary people" think about chance -- blogs, twitter and search engine queries. some objective data actual size of risk. The theory assumes a kind of idealized shuffle which isn't quite what the it's more sensible to choose an almost-full room. the ``Kelly" prediction that, from any starting date, Comparing stategies for betting on horse races. 2. Again, can you invent another experiment which demonstrates the same point, and get data? (3) As one example of recent studies of the health effect of lifestyle factors see (2) Find stock market data to examine the qualitative "dust-to-dust" property. What's going on with the game rooms? 3rd favorite (2) Are there other cases where you can study Why our fears don't always match the facts. distance 1, and an epidemic occurs in which infection continues to spread between Slightly separate from this course (being less "real-world") are some ongoing further individuals at distance < 1 apart. which you could search to find data to test predictions. for epidemics. A reasonable test statistic is the number of cards originally Point difference in football. (in as much detail as practical) times of arrival to waiting lines and times of service completion. Law and the Fuzzy CLT. Given the total number of successes (say 18 out of 29) do they occur in random order? For a project you could do a literature report on other realistic models of epidemics. Lecture 15: Size-biasing, regression effect and dust-to-dust phenomena. from data? I just noticed but haven't investigated There's an elegant and well-developed math theory of queues, Which math probability predictions are actually verifiable? 4. There is a classical theory of computer algorithms for sorting. small road networks. Below is a list of best statistics project topics and materials PDF documents for students acquiring a degree in the college of education (NCE), National Diploma (ND), Higher National Diploma (HND), and Bachelor of Science (BSC). (3) One could also do this with a cheap card-shuffling machine. Timing of wins within a season. Talk with me before doing substantial work on any project, though it's good for you to think a little first. Another shuffling schemes is "smooshing" where a deck of cards is slid about on the table shuffling 2 times, or 3 times, or 4 times, and then gather statistics they are using the Professor's viewpoint rather than the (more honest) Within this model there are many things one can study. Find a source (maybe cnn.com) that each day provides a 1 sentence Construct your own rating/prediction model and win (us) lots of money. with probability q the market will (at some point) go below q times its starting value. for the kinds of theoretical predictions that one could check against data. a web site devoted to hot hands. (4) Look at the examples and think of a classification of why the person is interested regarding probabilities of asteroid impact. (3) Find data on the $t$-year correlation for sports team winning percentage. my clasification of (6) Do your own survey of what Berkeley students perceive as risky, (2) Also see section 3.5 of the lecture write-up Take say 100 horse races -- look at odds and actual winner. and you can compare this to the theoretical (calculated from imputed probabilities) on the list of papers. make some detailed classification, analogous to the new individual is infected. D. Knuth Bayer-Diaconis or the more elementary Aldous-Diaconis paper. 1/50 chance to a 1/2 chance of winning. Lecture 12: Science fiction meets science. "fundamental analysis"). see if such effects are seen more often than "just chance" predicts. have data on quantities like the following for NFL games. (OK, not so intellectually challeging, but useful data!). 1 in a million, some which are much more likely, some much less likely. (1) Two settings where I want data for my own research .......... Also a fascinating "failed" project thrown by currently losing/winning team?). L^{-3/2} The basic model for sports. wins the Superbowl/World Series/Stanley Cup etc? The variability of teams standings at season end reflects both difference in ability and chance. (which quarter? his work by others, look at subsequent academic literature. (ii) there's a current "human score minus computer score" count (in particular) the performance of managed mutual funds relative to index funds. I would also like to see a "literature survey" of what has been done with models like this. roughly balanced because customers tend to choose short lines. Which math probability predictions are actually verifiable? Are these uniform random? Take the 12 [or 20 or 40] largest cities in some State or Country, and find the distances between each pair by road [or rail] and in straight line. But statisticians who have studied this are dubious -- data looks pretty random to them. (4) Look at the 2011 Global Risks chart, and give a rough assessment of the economic effects since 2011 Go to (say) pogo.com, go into (say) Spades and go into (say) Intermediate. Your statistics project assignment is a way of delivering a crucial subject to the audience where you should inspire and educate the reader. For unknown f, how to estimate the function f explanation of why the stock market did what it did the day before. Lecture 4: Psychology of probability: predictable irrationality. Look at historical data on annual stock returns and short term interest rates. (1) Can you find another "observable" online game with a clear "game theory" component? truly random. (2) The brief Wikipedia article (A CASE STUDY OF THE FEDERAL UNIVERSITY OF AGRICULTURE UMUDIKE, ABIA STATE), PERFORMANCE EVALUATION OF NNPC (1999-2015) USING REGRESSION ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES, THE CHALLENGES AND STATISTICAL IMPLICATION OF COMPUTER BASED TESTING(JAMB) ON NIGERIAN STUDENTS; THE NEED TO IMPLEMENT COMPUTER ASSISTED LEARNING, A statistical study on the effects of agricultural loan on farming activities in Nigeria – a case study of Ohaofia local government area of Abia state, A multivariate analysis on the response of crops to fertilizer and soil types. When Can One Test an Explanation? (4) Why asteroid impact probability goes up, then down. this paper which I'll talk about in class. the arc sine law. the skill levels from win/loss data? reading projects and also for possible course projects repeating an experiment. (ii) and a specified relationship which two people may have. Complex Adaptive Systems (2) (for a student who reads Chinese): track and analyze online discussion within China regarding See how well the Kelley strategy would have worked, based on modeling Note: below not updated since 2014. 1/8 (the proportion if uniform). (see What is the long-term advantage of knowing Wikipedia by expanding it. Suppose each team has a "skill level" measured by a real number x. (10/10) Then there are standard ways to analyze such data. (1) Regarding our "checking predictions of the smooth density idealization" examples, factors listed in Ropeik Lecture 1: Everyday perception of chance. (i) a specified set of individual people Lecture 6: Short/Medium term predictions in politics and economics. Can you think of some similar but more feasible project?

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